Report Forecasts: Global Fiber Broadband Adoption Climbs, China to Have 523 Million Subscribers by 2030

Recently, UK-based analyst firm Point Topic released a new report predicting that by the end of 2030, the number of fixed broadband subscriptions worldwide will reach 1.6 billion. fixed broadband subscriptions will reach 1.6 billion by the end of 2030, up 26 percent from 1.27 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The number of subscribers recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021 Around 88% of fixed broadband subscribers will be included in the top 30 broadband markets in terms of subscribers recorded in Q4 2021, according to the latest report from analyst firm Point Topic.

Global broadband market share changes by technology

The forecast indicates that by the end of 2030, 75 percent of the world's fixed broadband subscribers will be using some kind of fiber (FTTH/P/B), up from 62 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. This compares to 62% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Over the same period, the share of digital subscriber line (DSL)-based networks/asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) subscription share will fall from 10 percent to 4 percent, cable share will fall from 17.5 percent to 10 percent, and fiber-based Fiber-to-the-curb (FTTC) and very/ultra high-speed digital subscriber line (VDSL)-based connections and other technologies will remain more or less stable, at just over 8 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Fiber-to-the-curb (FTTC) and very/ultra-high speed digital subscriber line (VDSL) connections and other technologies will remain essentially stable, at just over 8% and 2% respectively.

Point Topic statistics on actual broadband subscribers worldwide show that for years traditional copper networks have been losing customers and being replaced by more advanced technologies. Direct fiber networks (NFNs) will continue to attract the majority of new customers between now and 2030. The number of digital subscriber line (DSL) network subscribers is expected to fall into the hundreds or tens of thousands in most technologically advanced markets.

Top 10 Markets for Fiber Broadband Subscribers in 2030

China will remain the largest fiber optic broadband market by 2030, with a projected 523 million subscribers, according to Point Topic. India will be second and the US third. Japan, the UK and France are also in the top ten, mainly in developing markets.

The report forecasts that fiber broadband subscriptions in India and Indonesia will see rapid growth by the end of this decade, and that this shift will also make India and Indonesia two of the top five markets with the largest number of subscribers by 2030. In cable television, the U.S. will continue to lead. The US will continue to lead the way, although subscriber numbers will begin to fall sharply from the end of 2025.

India's fiber subscriber growth trajectory is predicted to really start climbing in 2025, according to Point Topic. the end of 2028, India will tie or slightly surpass the U.S. in terms of fiber optic subscribers, taking the second spot in the world. Indonesia Indonesia's acceleration will start around 2026 and is expected to overtake Brazil and Japan to become fourth in the world by 2029. Throughout the forecast period, the number of fiber optic subscribers in China Throughout the forecast period, China will remain the world's No. 1 country in terms of fiber optic subscribers.

Point Topic predicts that by 2030, China will have 523 million fiber optic broadband subscribers, while India will reach 110 million. The U.S. is expected to reach around 80 million in the same timeframe, with Indonesia following close behind at nearly 60 million. Brazil is expected to narrowly Brazil is expected to narrowly overtake Japan in fifth place, although both countries will have around 40 million subscribers.

Top 10 Markets for Fiber Broadband Home Penetration 2030

With ambitious fiber rollout projects, Spain and the United Kingdom are expected to reach the highest fiber penetration rates in households by 2030. Fiber penetration in the home is expected to be the highest in Spain and the United Kingdom by 2030. The fast-growing markets of Vietnam, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as China, Japan, Sweden, France, and South Korea are already well established fiber markets and are also in the top ten of the fiber penetration forecast market. The rapidly growing markets of Vietnam, Chile and Indonesia, as well as China, Japan, Sweden, France and South Korea have well-established fiber markets and are also in the top ten of the fiber penetration forecast market.

By 2025, telcos' fiber footprints could reach 68 million U.S. homes, the report says. However, in terms of fiber deployment penetration penetration, however, Spain and the U.K. are expected to dominate, with fiber penetration in both countries reaching 100 percent by 2030 or higher. or higher by 2030. Vietnam, Chile, China and Japan all have penetration rates around 90 percent.

Point Topic analysis says: "In terms of household penetration, fiber will be used by more than half of the world's households, while fixed broadband penetration will reach 70% overall."

Segmented technology type application market analysis

In terms of technology breakdown, by the fourth quarter of 2030, fiber is expected to be used by 52.3% of households worldwide; cable is the second most prevalent at 7 percent; 5.8 percent of households use fiber-to-the-curb (FTTC) and very/ultra high-speed digital subscriber line (VDSL); 3.0 percent of households use digital subscriber line (DSL) networks/asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL); and 3.0 percent of households use VDSL. of households use digital subscriber line (DSL) networks/asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL); in addition, it is expected that about 1.5% of households will use other technologies.

While the growth of direct fiber will dominate this decade, the FTTC/VDSL and cable platforms favored by some carriers cannot be ignored, especially their more advanced versions such as Docsis 3.1. Point Topic noted that these technologies are very popular in some markets, although the number of subscribers using them will come at the expense of direct fiber usage. Point Topic notes that these technologies are popular in some markets, although the number of subscribers using them will come at the expense of direct fiber.

Experts suggest that the areas where cable broadband is hardest to penetrate are concentrated in the suburbs. Currently, the U.S. leads the pack, with the largest number of cable broadband subscribers, about 80 million; China is second with about 30 million subscribers. Currently, the U.S. leads the way, with the largest number of cable broadband subscribers, about 80 million, while China comes in second, with about 30 million subscribers. However, the number of subscribers in both countries is expected to increase from 2025 to 2025. Point Topic predicts that by the fourth quarter of 2030, the number of subscribers using cable technology in the U.S. will probably be more than double the number of subscribers using cable technology. Point Topic forecasts that by the fourth quarter of 2030, the number of subscribers to cable technology in the U.S. will probably be in excess of 40 million, while in China it will be around 16 million.

Point Topic's forecast for the U.S. cable market is consistent with a June 2021 review by leading investment bank Moffett Nathanson, which concluded that the impact of fiber optics on cable operators will peak in 2024 or 2025. June 2021 by leading investment bank Moffett Nathanson, which suggested that fiber's impact on cable operators will peak in 2024 or 2025.3 The impact of fiber on cable operators is expected to be significant in the future. However However, this is in stark contrast to the July 2021 forecast issued by New Street Research. The firm predicts that by 2030, total subscribers for U.S. cable operators will increase from 73.3 million in 2020 to 85.9 million. However, New Street Research's forecast covers the total number of residential subscribers that cable operators will have, not just those with DOCSIS connections.

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